On this blog I’ve been wanting to talk about investments for a very long time, but I haven’t. With the election in full swing – I think I finally have a hidden opportunity to show off my stuff in reading charts. The chart to my left was snap shot today and will be my bases for this analysis. It is recognized as the most reliable poll and up to date just after the Iowa Caucus 2/2/16. (The most up to date it could be at the time of this posting). I’m going to draw your attention to just the 3 main candidates, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump.
Do you see how eradic Marco Rubios numbers are in the polls? Sharp ups sharp downs… it indicates many things, usually resulting from his own mistakes… but it seems he’s in a state of constant Flux or volatility….
now being an investor and if Rubio were on a stock chart, I’d say to myself “Hell No” – which I do… the reason is he has no stability in upward growth. His supporters are “flaky”, he himself lacks “self control” in his business model. Were really just seeing the crazy collage of Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina supporters here from back in October 15… they don’t really know what they want, but they are figuring it out.
If I bought Marco’s stock today – tomorrow it would be worthless. it might make a comeback, but only after I pay out all my losses, along with Marcos losses of supporters in his inevitable decline.. (He builds them up then shakes them completely off when he goes down, which is another concept in itself).. the word “Volatility” is a very dirty word here. Stocks that do this are nothing but bad news and usually come from a scam company, the red flags are everywhere … if this were a stock I’m not saying rubio is a scam…. which is why a smart investor avoids them. They are too unpredictable and haven’t a firm foundation.
When a company has a strong and stable base it’s represented in their stock chart as a slow or steady growth. In Ted Cruz’s “line” we see very plainly his support isn’t going anywhere and he is ultimately the stronger candidate because of it. If Cruz were a stock were looking at great dividends along the way of excellent growth potential. As a long term investment, Cruz is to be most desirable. His followers are sure to never be disappointed,(except of course if he looses)…. Indeed I wish there were more real stocks that looked like him, that would be even more beautiful.
Then there’s Trumps line… it’s way too high for too long, considering most people hate him. The only thing it can do is go down because it’s only ever been high…. which it is now on a sharp decline. If trump were a stock, your looking at an excellent way to throw your money away thinking:
“the price is so much it must be good”
That notion is how a rookie investor thinks… all stocks go up and down, and there’s no money to be made in it if it just sits there no matter how much it costs. (Especially when it costs too much, to buy more). When Stocks are stagnant for too long, it only goes down and fast, sometimes practically overnight at that 😉
In this analysis, here is the hard question… is it too late in the race for Cruz to take down Trump?
He just won 1st in Iowa, and he made it in 3rd place in the very liberal state of New Hampshire. That’s where we are with Cruz, yet his following isn’t shaken – many were well aware not to be disappointed weeks in advanced. One of Cruz’s strongest points that the other candidates don’t do is he “tends to his flock”. He does not leave them in the dark on any controversy, and he tells them not to be surprised in advanced about a foreseeable problem. (IE. New Hampshire) This goes a very long way in his strength of support, they trust him completely. Equally he keeps no secretes, he is very quick to respond to controversies with definite answers, and he puts everything on the table long before anything even becomes an issue (most in fact he did so right when he started running, including his Birth certificate)- this adds to his trust among his supporters. Their isn’t any conspiracy, cover ups, lies, or hidden secrets or something to apologize for that we don’t about know right from the start. What they love most is, because of this they are less prone to political slander of other candidate supporters… it is a lot less stressful being on the Cruz Ship!
Other candidates however are subject to a, let’s face it, Brutal and chaotic vetting process in the GOP run. As we watch this vetting process proceed, we find less and less things to accuse Ted Cruz of or to slander. Where as everything hidden about other candidates is aggressively put on full public display. Trump refuses to even apologize to his supporters that he often throws under the bus, Infact he is quite cruel in that regard. Rubio, to his credit, has often had come out to apologize for his mistakes that threw his supporters under the bus. Ted is running solely on his beliefs in the issues… His forth coming and honesty has been his strongest feature so far in the 2016 election.
This brings me to the final expected outcome, the bare issues. Ted Cruz’s issues of say a flat tax is probably his most loved issue, however every thing else is very well in lined with Marco Rubio. So to answer the question of “will Ted Cruz win”- it depends largely on them at this point in the game. Cruz managed to pull a good deal support from Donald Trump and other lower tier candidates… Frankly the numbers coalesce to Ted Cruz in my opinion.